Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 876 at 07:10, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 876 GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 876 Delta Flight history →	GSP 07:10	DTW 08:57	8%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 5195 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 11:12	DTW 13:00	17%	4%	0.0%	83%
DL 5090 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 18:55	DTW 20:48	39%	17%	4.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON