tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3806 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3806 American flown by Envoy Flight history → GSP 06:30 MIA 08:26 13% 4% 1.2% 89%
AA 3558 American flown by Envoy Flight history → GSP 20:00 MIA 21:54 41% 13% 1.8% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510 5h 13m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → GSP 06:45 → ATL 07:48DL 1146 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 17m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → GSP 06:00 → LGA 08:04AA 4751 · flown by Republic 1h 24m New York LGA 09:28 → MIA 12:45AA 3211 6h 45m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 6h 11m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → GSP 06:35 → DCA 08:23AA 5031 · flown by PSA 1h 32m Washington DCA 09:55 → MIA 12:38AA 1173 6h 03m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → GSP 08:52 → ATL 09:58DL 1619 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:52 → MIA 14:55DL 1579 6h 03m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → GSP 17:16 → ATL 18:22DL 3095 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234 6h 23m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → GSP 10:03 → ATL 11:04DL 3089 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 6h 52m 99% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSP 09:00 → CLT 10:16AA 5381 · flown by PSA 46m Charlotte CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969 4h 11m 69% 53%
AmericanDetails → GSP 14:35 → CLT 15:51AA 5805 · flown by Piedmont 49m Charlotte CLT 16:40 → MIA 18:57AA 2231 4h 22m 74% 48%
AmericanDetails → GSP 17:28 → DFW 19:15AA 1897 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → MIA 23:56AA 2823 6h 28m 63% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON