Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 4728 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 4728 GSP 06:10 → ORD 07:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3559 GSP 19:20 → ORD 20:51 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4728 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GSP 06:10	ORD 07:30	10%	5%	1.0%	89%
UA 5361 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GSP 10:45	ORD 11:59	17%	6%	0.9%	66%
AA 3564 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 09:21	ORD 10:30	17%	4%	1.1%	79%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 11:31	ORD 12:40	19%	4%	1.2%	86%
UA 5524 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GSP 17:43	ORD 19:00	25%	9%	1.1%	61%
AA 3559 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 19:20	ORD 20:51	32%	6%	1.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON