Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5130 at 08:00, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5130 GSP 08:00 → PHL 09:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5130 American flown by PSA Flight history →	GSP 08:00	PHL 09:50	13%	6%	1.0%	90%
AA 5908 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 10:37	PHL 12:32	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AA 5801 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 18:32	PHL 20:31	26%	19%	4.9%	74%
AA 6132 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 14:29	PHL 16:29	33%	15%	6.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON