Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 5817 at 12:11, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5817 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	HHH 12:11	ATL 13:30	15%	6%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HHH 15:05 → ORD 16:51UA 3542 · flown by Republic	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	8h 25m	95%	80%
American Details →	HHH 11:47 → CLT 13:05AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	3h 41m Charlotte	CLT 16:46 → ATL 18:14AA 5040 · flown by PSA	6h 27m	100%	74%
American Details →	HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 20:30 → ATL 21:52AA 5528 · flown by PSA	4h 57m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	HHH 16:14 → LGA 18:25DL 5590 · flown by Republic	2h 05m New York	LGA 20:30 → ATL 23:43DL 975	7h 29m	87%	67%
American Details →	HHH 14:03 → ORD 15:39AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 18:59 → ATL 22:03AA 2779	8h 00m	95%	64%
American Details →	HHH 11:07 → DCA 12:52AA 4515 · flown by Republic	1h 28m Washington	DCA 14:20 → ATL 16:26AA 5084 · flown by PSA	5h 19m	91%	62%
United Details →	HHH 13:45 → EWR 16:00UA 3447 · flown by Republic	1h 12m Newark	EWR 17:12 → ATL 19:46UA 1991	6h 01m	82%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON