Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4515 at 11:07, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4515 American flown by Republic Flight history →	HHH 11:07	DCA 12:52	15%	6%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HHH 15:05 → ORD 16:51UA 3542 · flown by Republic	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	7h 49m	95%	75%
American Details →	HHH 11:47 → CLT 13:05AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	1h 29m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	4h 26m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	HHH 12:11 → ATL 13:30DL 5817 · flown by Republic	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	6h 26m	97%	72%
American Details →	HHH 14:48 → CLT 16:09AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 18:22 → DCA 20:00AA 2386	5h 12m	95%	67%
American Details →	HHH 14:03 → ORD 15:39AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → DCA 20:59AA 1787	6h 56m	93%	67%
American Details →	HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Charlotte	CLT 20:49 → DCA 22:20AA 527	5h 25m	99%	67%
American Details →	HHH 12:50 → CLT 14:11AA 3582 · flown by Envoy	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 16:47 → DCA 18:22AA 3263	5h 32m	91%	61%
Delta Details →	HHH 16:14 → LGA 18:25DL 5590 · flown by Republic	2h 55m New York	LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58DL 1825	6h 44m	89%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HHH 16:14 → LGA 18:25DL 5590 · flown by Republic	50m New York	LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59DL 5724 · flown by Republic	4h 45m	68%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON