tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 5590 at 16:14, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 5590 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → HHH 16:14 LGA 18:25 25% 14% 0.9% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HHH 12:11 → ATL 13:30DL 5817 · flown by Republic 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:20DL 997 7h 09m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy 3h 18m Charlotte CLT 21:37 → LGA 23:30AA 2068 6h 35m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → HHH 11:07 → DCA 12:52AA 4515 · flown by Republic 1h 13m Washington DCA 14:05 → LGA 15:39AA 4730 · flown by Republic 4h 32m 91% 66%
UnitedDetails → HHH 15:05 → ORD 16:51UA 3542 · flown by Republic 2h 54m Chicago ORD 19:45 → LGA 23:15UA 1655 8h 10m 95% 65%
AmericanDetails → HHH 11:47 → CLT 13:05AA 3563 · flown by Envoy 2h 12m Charlotte CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942 5h 28m 100% 64%
AmericanDetails → HHH 12:50 → CLT 14:11AA 3582 · flown by Envoy 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 16:26 → LGA 18:29AA 1722 5h 39m 91% 57%
AmericanDetails → HHH 14:48 → CLT 16:09AA 3562 · flown by Envoy 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 17:38 → LGA 19:41AA 1060 4h 53m 89% 54%
AmericanDetails → HHH 14:03 → ORD 15:39AA 3862 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Chicago ORD 18:29 → LGA 21:50AA 1724 7h 47m 95% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HHH 14:03 → ORD 15:39AA 3862 · flown by Envoy 51m Chicago ORD 16:30 → LGA 19:53AA 2086 5h 50m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON