Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3542 United flown by Republic Flight history →	HHH 15:05	ORD 16:51	24%	9%	0.9%	67%
AA 3862 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HHH 14:03	ORD 15:39	25%	8%	1.5%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Hilton Head Island). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HHH 11:47 → CLT 13:05AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 14:35 → ORD 15:56AA 2080	5h 09m	100%	82%
American Details →	HHH 11:07 → DCA 12:52AA 4515 · flown by Republic	3h 05m Washington	DCA 15:57 → ORD 17:29AA 3254	7h 22m	94%	75%
American Details →	HHH 16:55 → CLT 18:19AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	2h 08m Charlotte	CLT 20:27 → ORD 22:00AA 627	6h 05m	96%	74%
American Details →	HHH 12:50 → CLT 14:11AA 3582 · flown by Envoy	2h 05m Charlotte	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	5h 49m	91%	70%
Delta Details →	HHH 12:11 → ATL 13:30DL 5817 · flown by Republic	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	6h 01m	95%	69%
American Details →	HHH 14:48 → CLT 16:09AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	6h 03m	96%	69%
United Details →	HHH 13:45 → EWR 16:00UA 3447 · flown by Republic	3h 12m Newark	EWR 19:12 → ORD 21:00UA 1998	8h 15m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	HHH 16:14 → LGA 18:25DL 5590 · flown by Republic	2h 20m New York	LGA 20:45 → ORD 22:36DL 2806	7h 22m	88%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON