Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 50 at 21:11, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 50 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:11	ANC 05:20	21%	4%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840	1h 33m Portland	PDX 17:50 → ANC 20:38AS 271	10h 53m	100%	83%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 32m San Francisco	SFO 18:47 → ANC 22:40UA 1594	13h 30m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	3h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 19:31 → ANC 23:55AS 1899	13h 55m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:00 → SEA 15:52AS 762	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 18:46 → ANC 21:25AS 661	12h 25m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:43 +1AS 1363	11h 53m	94%	64%
Southwest Details →	HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50WN 1913	1h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 18:30 → ANC 22:45WN 1575	12h 45m	100%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON