Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 11:16, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 309 Delta Flight history →	HNL 15:15	ATL 06:00	17%	6%	0.9%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 11:16 → SFO 19:25UA 1572	1h 55m San Francisco	SFO 21:20 → ATL 05:20 +1UA 1603	12h 04m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 16:40 → ATL 00:30 +1DL 471	11h 30m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 22:40 → ATL 06:10 +1DL 899	11h 35m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05DL 359	1h 54m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → ATL 07:47 +1DL 652	12h 40m	95%	73%
Southwest Details →	HNL 11:55 → LAS 20:45WN 1914	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → ATL 05:45 +1WN 2179	11h 50m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 23:31 → ATL 07:24 +1AS 464	12h 34m	92%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON