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Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1452 Alaska Flight history → HNL 10:31 BUR 19:03 24% 8% 1.3% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840 1h 40m Portland PDX 17:57 → BUR 20:18AS 559 9h 33m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 2h 39m San Francisco SFO 17:54 → BUR 19:20UA 1321 9h 10m 95% 70%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 07:00 → SEA 15:52AS 762 2h 06m Seattle SEA 17:58 → BUR 20:39AS 1372 10h 39m 100% 67%
SouthwestDetails → HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50WN 1913 3h 05m Las Vegas LAS 19:55 → BUR 21:10WN 2202 10h 10m 100% 61%
SouthwestDetails → HNL 11:00 → SJC 19:00WN 4994 1h 50m San Jose SJC 20:50 → BUR 21:55WN 1839 7h 55m 100% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → HNL 11:16 → SFO 19:25UA 1572 55m San Francisco SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367 7h 31m 69% 50%
SouthwestDetails → HNL 11:00 → SMF 19:10WN 1942 50m Sacramento SMF 20:00 → BUR 21:20WN 1890 7h 20m 58% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON