Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 383 United Flight history →	HNL 19:40	DEN 06:17	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1806 United Flight history →	HNL 21:40	DEN 08:17	12%	3%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610	11h 15m	97%	82%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840	1h 47m Portland	PDX 18:04 → DEN 21:40AS 1627	9h 55m	100%	81%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	11h 34m	97%	80%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:30 → SAN 16:01AS 892	4h 00m San Diego	SAN 20:01 → DEN 23:30AS 1619	12h 00m	100%	79%
United Details →	HNL 11:16 → SFO 19:25UA 1572	1h 35m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	9h 31m	96%	77%
Southwest Details →	HNL 08:15 → SJC 16:20WN 1940	3h 20m San Jose	SJC 19:40 → DEN 23:10WN 4247	10h 55m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:00 → SEA 15:52AS 762	3h 08m Seattle	SEA 19:00 → DEN 22:45AS 310	11h 45m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50WN 1913	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 17:55 → DEN 20:50WN 2969	8h 50m	100%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON