tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via LAX, leaving 14:00, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6 American Flight history → HNL 17:39 DFW 06:00 13% 6% 1.0% 88%
AA 102 American Flight history → HNL 18:36 DFW 07:00 16% 7% 0.9% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 3h 35m San Francisco SFO 18:50 → DFW 00:37 +1UA 2478 12h 27m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 3h 20m Los Angeles LAX 18:53 → DFW 23:59DL 420 11h 59m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → HNL 12:23 → LAX 20:55AA 162 2h 53m Los Angeles LAX 23:48 → DFW 05:01 +1AA 3136 11h 38m 97% 72%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 07:00 → SEA 15:52AS 762 2h 04m Seattle SEA 17:56 → DFW 23:59AS 424 11h 59m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822 1h 29m Seattle SEA 23:03 → DFW 05:02 +1AS 542 11h 12m 86% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON