Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via LAX, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Detroit on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 35% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 310 Delta Flight history →	HNL 14:45	DTW 05:25	15%	5%	0.9%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 22:20 → DTW 05:43 +1DL 407	11h 08m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05DL 359	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → DTW 06:28 +1DL 810	11h 21m	89%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822	48m Seattle	SEA 22:22 → DTW 05:41 +1AS 343	10h 51m	35%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON