Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 252 United Flight history →	HNL 19:50	IAH 08:32	17%	4%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 19:21 → IAH 00:50 +1UA 387	12h 50m	97%	85%
United Details →	HNL 13:25 → SFO 21:23UA 1818	2h 36m San Francisco	SFO 23:59 → IAH 06:04 +1UA 505	11h 39m	99%	83%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 39m San Francisco	SFO 18:54 → IAH 00:59 +1UA 1702	12h 49m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	3h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287	11h 59m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 23:57 → IAH 06:20 +1AS 398	12h 30m	94%	68%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:00 → SEA 15:52AS 762	1h 41m Seattle	SEA 17:33 → IAH 23:59AS 1573	11h 59m	98%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON