Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1902 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1902 HNL 06:00 → ITO 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 1082 HNL 15:21 → ITO 16:15 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1902 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 06:00	ITO 07:00	3%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 1903 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 08:55	ITO 09:55	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
AS 1002 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:10	ITO 07:03	7%	1%	1.3%	93%
AS 1022 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	ITO 08:54	13%	2%	1.3%	94%
WN 1907 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 20:45	ITO 21:50	14%	3%	0.7%	89%
AS 1012 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:05	ITO 07:58	15%	3%	1.4%	88%
WN 648 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 13:30	ITO 14:30	16%	4%	0.8%	67%
WN 1906 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 17:10	ITO 18:10	18%	4%	0.7%	89%
AS 1032 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:01	ITO 10:55	18%	4%	1.5%	89%
AS 1062 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:31	ITO 14:27	27%	5%	1.5%	87%worse than usual
AS 1072 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:17	ITO 15:13	27%	7%	1.5%	76%
AS 1052 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:18	ITO 13:14	28%	6%	1.5%	70%
AS 1122 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:05	ITO 21:59	29%	5%	1.1%	80%
AS 1112 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:20	ITO 20:13	29%	7%	1.2%	76%
AS 1092 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:33	ITO 17:27	29%	8%	1.3%	68%
AS 1102 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:18	ITO 19:12	30%	7%	1.1%	74%
AS 1082 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:21	ITO 16:15	32%	7%	1.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON