tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via LAX, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 650 Delta Flight history → HNL 15:50 JFK 07:30 12% 5% 1.3% 92%
AS 830 Alaska Flight history → HNL 15:09 JFK 06:55 25% 5% 0.9% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427 2h 55m Los Angeles LAX 23:55 → JFK 08:16 +1DL 915 13h 41m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → HNL 12:23 → LAX 20:55AA 162 1h 28m Los Angeles LAX 22:23 → JFK 07:00 +1AA 30 12h 37m 90% 72%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34AS 822 1h 41m Seattle SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22 12h 48m 89% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → HNL 12:20 → SFO 20:28AS 812 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 21:30 → JFK 06:20 +1AS 211 12h 00m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON