Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 655 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 655 HNL 06:10 → KOA 07:05 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 1138 HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 655 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 06:10	KOA 07:05	2%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 675 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 09:45	KOA 10:40	5%	1%	0.6%	97%
AS 1018 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	KOA 06:46	6%	1%	1.4%	93%
AS 1028 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:13	KOA 07:59	9%	2%	1.4%	95%
AS 1038 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	KOA 08:46	10%	2%	1.4%	93%
WN 495 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 20:35	KOA 21:30	11%	3%	0.6%	98%
AS 1048 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:26	KOA 09:12	12%	2%	1.4%	94%
AS 1058 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:32	KOA 10:19	14%	3%	1.4%	86%
WN 1911 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 17:15	KOA 18:05	14%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 561 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 13:15	KOA 14:10	15%	3%	0.6%	74%
AS 1168 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:45	KOA 19:31	22%	5%	1.3%	88%
AS 1068 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:59	KOA 11:46	22%	5%	1.4%	85%
AS 1178 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:03	KOA 21:50	23%	5%	1.3%	84%
AS 1078 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:28	KOA 12:16	25%	5%	1.4%	79%
AS 1088 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:51	KOA 12:40	25%	5%	1.4%	71%
AS 1158 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:30	KOA 18:16	26%	5%	1.6%	80%
AS 1148 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:26	KOA 17:12	26%	6%	1.6%	79%
AS 1098 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:25	KOA 13:13	29%	5%	1.6%	74%
AS 1108 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:14	KOA 14:02	29%	6%	1.7%	74%
AS 1138 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:14	KOA 16:01	30%	6%	1.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON