Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1913 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1913 HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 876 HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1913 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 08:00	LAS 16:50	8%	2%	0.5%	100%
WN 1915 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 20:55	LAS 05:45	8%	2%	0.5%	100%
WN 1914 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 11:55	LAS 20:45	11%	3%	0.5%	91%
AS 808 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:20	LAS 08:03	21%	5%	0.7%	78%
AS 806 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:55	LAS 16:39	24%	4%	0.8%	78%
AS 876 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:25	LAS 22:10	32%	8%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 53m Kahului	OGG 10:36 → LAS 19:10AS 932	8h 08m	99%	76%
United Details →	HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157	1h 36m Los Angeles	LAX 22:59 → LAS 00:21 +1UA 2315	8h 21m	90%	68%
Southwest Details →	HNL 11:00 → SJC 19:00WN 4994	1h 20m San Jose	SJC 20:20 → LAS 21:50WN 3675	7h 50m	98%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON