Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 422 HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 802 HNL 13:10 → LAX 21:32 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 422 Delta Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:33	9%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 1251 United Flight history →	HNL 22:53	LAX 07:29	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 1221 United Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:32	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 4082 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 20:50	LAX 05:15	11%	3%	0.6%	97%
DL 658 Delta Flight history →	HNL 21:30	LAX 06:00	13%	5%	0.7%	93%
UA 1103 United Flight history →	HNL 11:10	LAX 19:47	13%	5%	0.7%	97%worse than usual
UA 1169 United Flight history →	HNL 21:40	LAX 06:03	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 1636 United Flight history →	HNL 15:15	LAX 23:47	16%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 427 Delta Flight history →	HNL 12:35	LAX 21:00	16%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 144 American Flight history →	HNL 20:30	LAX 05:02	17%	5%	0.6%	87%
WN 1916 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 12:55	LAX 21:20	18%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 164 American Flight history →	HNL 14:00	LAX 22:36	18%	7%	0.6%	89%
UA 1157 United Flight history →	HNL 13:00	LAX 21:23	20%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 162 American Flight history →	HNL 12:23	LAX 20:55	22%	8%	0.6%	81%
AS 804 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 20:39	LAX 05:00	22%	5%	0.7%	79%
AS 810 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	LAX 16:20	24%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 2888 American Flight history →	HNL 23:40	LAX 08:10	26%	7%	0.6%	63%
AS 763 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:52	LAX 20:28	29%	7%	0.7%	75%
AS 853 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:58	LAX 08:23	30%	6%	0.7%	74%
AS 802 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:10	LAX 21:32	41%	8%	0.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 12:31 → OGG 13:15AS 1106	1h 45m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 36m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:32 → KOA 10:19AS 1058	56m Kailua/Kona	KOA 11:15 → LAX 19:32AS 920	7h 00m	82%	69%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754	7h 55m	94%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON