Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1919 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1919 HNL 06:25 → LIH 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 1083 HNL 13:47 → LIH 14:31 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1919 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 06:25	LIH 07:15	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 1921 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 09:40	LIH 10:30	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
AS 1003 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	LIH 06:40	5%	1%	1.4%	95%
AS 1183 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:15	LIH 09:56	10%	2%	1.4%	96%
AS 1013 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:10	LIH 07:50	12%	3%	1.5%	91%
WN 1925 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 20:40	LIH 21:30	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 1033 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:33	LIH 09:14	14%	2%	1.4%	92%
WN 2349 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 17:20	LIH 18:05	14%	3%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
AS 1043 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:00	LIH 10:41	15%	3%	1.4%	91%
AS 1023 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:52	LIH 08:32	15%	3%	1.4%	91%
WN 1923 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 13:25	LIH 14:15	17%	3%	0.6%	84%
AS 1163 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:31	LIH 20:13	21%	5%	1.4%	83%
AS 1053 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:44	LIH 11:26	22%	4%	1.4%	85%
AS 1063 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:26	LIH 12:09	24%	4%	1.4%	82%
AS 1153 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:50	LIH 19:31	25%	5%	1.3%	80%
AS 1143 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:08	LIH 18:49	25%	6%	1.3%	75%
AS 1123 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:03	LIH 17:44	28%	6%	1.6%	68%
AS 1173 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:18	LIH 21:59	28%	5%	1.3%	79%
AS 1113 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:21	LIH 17:02	29%	7%	1.6%	68%
AS 1103 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:39	LIH 16:20	30%	7%	1.4%	75%
AS 1093 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:55	LIH 15:38	30%	6%	1.5%	64%
AS 1073 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:15	LIH 13:58	33%	6%	1.5%	62%
AS 1083 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:47	LIH 14:31	33%	6%	1.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON