Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Seattle, leaving 13:07, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 313 Delta Flight history →	HNL 16:20	MSP 05:02	13%	5%	0.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	3h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 18:50 → MSP 00:20 +1DL 2180	12h 20m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	HNL 13:07 → SEA 22:05DL 359	1h 54m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → MSP 05:15 +1DL 953	11h 08m	95%	77%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:00 → SEA 15:52AS 762	2h 48m Seattle	SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:59AS 386	11h 59m	100%	74%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	55m San Francisco	SFO 16:10 → MSP 21:57UA 648	9h 47m	88%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON