Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Kahului, leaving 08:05, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1928 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 21:30	OAK 05:35	11%	3%	0.5%	97%
AS 848 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:15	OAK 20:25	25%	5%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HNL 17:20 → LIH 18:05WN 2349	3h 05m Lihue	LIH 21:10 → OAK 05:20 +1WN 2523	9h 00m	100%	91%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840	1h 16m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	8h 38m	93%	90%
Southwest Details →	HNL 05:50 → OGG 06:40WN 1927	3h 20m Kahului	OGG 10:00 → OAK 17:55WN 3089	9h 05m	100%	89%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:50 → OGG 09:31AS 1056	3h 31m Kahului	OGG 13:02 → OAK 21:00AS 924	9h 10m	100%	79%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:15 → LIH 09:56AS 1183	3h 10m Lihue	LIH 13:06 → OAK 21:16AS 968	9h 01m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	HNL 11:55 → LAS 20:45WN 1914	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 22:45 → OAK 00:20 +1WN 596	9h 25m	100%	65%
Southwest Details →	HNL 08:10 → SAN 16:35WN 1938	1h 45m San Diego	SAN 18:20 → OAK 19:55WN 3017	8h 45m	100%	64%
Southwest Details →	HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50WN 1913	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 18:00 → OAK 19:35WN 5050	8h 35m	100%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:26 → LIH 12:09AS 1063	57m Lihue	LIH 13:06 → OAK 21:16AS 968	6h 50m	66%	52%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:24 → OGG 12:07AS 1086	55m Kahului	OGG 13:02 → OAK 21:00AS 924	6h 36m	64%	51%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:30 → SAN 16:01AS 892	54m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	8h 03m	65%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON