Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1927 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1927 HNL 05:50 → OGG 06:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AS 1116 HNL 13:01 → OGG 13:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1927 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 05:50	OGG 06:40	2%	1%	0.7%	98%
WN 574 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 08:05	OGG 08:50	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 1851 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 09:50	OGG 10:40	3%	1%	0.7%	95%
AS 1016 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	OGG 06:40	6%	1%	1.1%	94%
WN 1933 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 17:25	OGG 18:10	7%	2%	0.6%	98%
WN 508 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 20:30	OGG 21:20	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 1931 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 14:00	OGG 14:50	9%	2%	0.7%	98%
WN 1932 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 15:50	OGG 16:35	10%	2%	0.7%	91%
WN 1930 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 12:20	OGG 13:10	11%	2%	0.8%	71%
AS 1046 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:02	OGG 08:43	11%	2%	1.1%	95%
AS 1026 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:00	OGG 07:40	12%	2%	1.1%	97%
AS 1036 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:26	OGG 08:06	14%	3%	1.1%	86%
AS 1056 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:50	OGG 09:31	16%	2%	1.0%	91%
AS 1066 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:10	OGG 10:52	19%	4%	1.1%	79%
AS 1076 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:59	OGG 11:41	20%	3%	1.0%	84%
AS 1206 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:30	OGG 20:12	20%	5%	1.1%	81%
AS 1186 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:27	OGG 19:08	22%	5%	1.2%	78%
AS 1176 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:42	OGG 18:23	22%	5%	1.1%	82%
AS 1216 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:00	OGG 21:41	23%	4%	1.0%	73%
AS 1156 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:43	OGG 17:24	25%	6%	1.2%	70%
AS 1096 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:44	OGG 12:28	25%	4%	1.0%	79%
AS 1146 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:23	OGG 17:04	26%	5%	1.2%	71%
AS 1086 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:24	OGG 12:07	27%	4%	1.0%	75%
AS 1126 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:24	OGG 15:08	28%	5%	1.0%	72%
AS 1106 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:31	OGG 13:15	29%	5%	1.7%	70%
AS 1136 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:35	OGG 16:16	31%	6%	1.0%	65%
AS 1116 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:01	OGG 13:45	31%	6%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON