tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 218 United Flight history → HNL 16:00 ORD 05:05 12% 4% 0.8% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → HNL 11:10 → LAX 19:47UA 1103 2h 48m Los Angeles LAX 22:35 → ORD 04:51 +1UA 353 12h 41m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 18:58 → ORD 01:15 +1UA 1754 13h 15m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:25 → SFO 21:23UA 1818 2h 07m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 11h 32m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962 11h 46m 94% 80%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814 2h 09m Portland PDX 22:59 → ORD 05:00 +1AS 376 11h 38m 94% 78%
UnitedDetails → HNL 11:16 → SFO 19:25UA 1572 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 22:38 → ORD 05:01 +1UA 2278 12h 45m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 18:34 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1375 12h 49m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 17:15 → ORD 23:18DL 1634 11h 18m 96% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON