Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 840 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 840 HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 814 HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 840 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:45	PDX 16:17	14%	3%	0.9%	93%
AS 880 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:39	PDX 06:11	19%	4%	0.8%	77%
AS 814 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:22	PDX 20:50	25%	5%	0.9%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 09:32 → KOA 10:19AS 1058	1h 39m Kailua/Kona	KOA 11:58 → PDX 20:35AS 253	8h 03m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:50 → OGG 09:31AS 1056	1h 30m Kahului	OGG 11:01 → PDX 19:27AS 1490	7h 37m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	HNL 18:27 → OGG 19:08AS 1186	2h 02m Kahului	OGG 21:10 → PDX 05:32 +1AS 558	8h 05m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON