Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2277 HNL 21:00 → PHX 05:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 836 HNL 11:10 → PHX 20:08 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2277 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 21:00	PHX 05:55	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 694 American Flight history →	HNL 22:16	PHX 07:15	16%	7%	0.9%	82%
AA 692 American Flight history →	HNL 21:00	PHX 06:00	18%	6%	1.0%	90%
AS 836 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:10	PHX 20:08	19%	6%	0.6%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HNL 17:25 → OGG 18:10WN 1933	2h 15m Kahului	OGG 20:25 → PHX 05:10 +1WN 672	8h 45m	100%	92%
United Details →	HNL 11:10 → LAX 19:47UA 1103	1h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 21:22 → PHX 22:59UA 5458 · flown by SkyWest	8h 49m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → PHX 00:06 +1DL 3827 · flown by SkyWest	8h 31m	95%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON