Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1938 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1938 HNL 08:10 → SAN 16:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 816 HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1938 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 08:10	SAN 16:35	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 512 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 21:25	SAN 05:50	17%	3%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
AS 892 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:30	SAN 16:01	22%	4%	1.5%	80%
AS 1412 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:55	SAN 06:32	25%	4%	1.9%	86%worse than usual
AS 816 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:39	SAN 21:07	34%	6%	1.8%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:00 → KOA 08:46AS 1038	1h 51m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	8h 02m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	96%	76%
United Details →	HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157	1h 33m Los Angeles	LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54UA 594	7h 54m	90%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON