Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 440 at 22:47 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–44%.

Safest bet that day DL 440 HNL 22:47 → SEA 07:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 822 HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 440 Delta Flight history →	HNL 22:47	SEA 07:36	7%	4%	0.8%	94%
DL 359 Delta Flight history →	HNL 13:07	SEA 22:05	13%	5%	0.9%	87%
AS 762 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:00	SEA 15:52	14%	3%	0.8%	88%
AS 122 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:20	SEA 05:59	23%	5%	0.7%	71%
AS 900 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:20	SEA 08:00	27%	5%	0.7%	73%
AS 90 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:07	SEA 23:59	34%	8%	0.8%	69%
AS 822 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:50	SEA 21:34	44%	7%	0.8%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 06:00 → KOA 06:46AS 1018	1h 17m Kailua/Kona	KOA 08:03 → SEA 16:55AS 513	7h 55m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	HNL 18:45 → KOA 19:31AS 1168	1h 48m Kailua/Kona	KOA 21:19 → SEA 06:12 +1AS 259	8h 27m	94%	77%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:59 → KOA 11:46AS 1068	1h 32m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:18 → SEA 22:11AS 205	8h 12m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON