Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 373 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 373 HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 812 HNL 12:20 → SFO 20:28 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 373 United Flight history →	HNL 07:10	SFO 15:15	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 1346 United Flight history →	HNL 22:10	SFO 06:09	11%	4%	0.7%	94%
UA 1176 United Flight history →	HNL 23:01	SFO 07:05	12%	5%	0.7%	92%
UA 1572 United Flight history →	HNL 11:16	SFO 19:25	14%	5%	0.7%	96%
UA 1947 United Flight history →	HNL 15:50	SFO 23:59	16%	7%	0.7%	79%
UA 650 United Flight history →	HNL 14:40	SFO 22:49	18%	7%	0.7%	83%
AS 842 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:26	SFO 07:31	23%	7%	1.0%	75%
UA 1818 United Flight history →	HNL 13:25	SFO 21:23	24%	8%	0.7%	65%
AS 812 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:20	SFO 20:28	34%	12%	1.4%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 49m Kahului	OGG 10:32 → SFO 18:27AS 978	7h 25m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	HNL 13:47 → LIH 14:31AS 1083	1h 12m Lihue	LIH 15:43 → SFO 23:56AS 788	7h 09m	82%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON