Friday, October 9 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1940 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1940 HNL 08:15 → SJC 16:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 1411 HNL 12:30 → SJC 20:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1940 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 08:15	SJC 16:20	5%	3%	0.8%	93%
WN 4994 Southwest Flight history →	HNL 11:00	SJC 19:00	12%	4%	0.7%	90%
AS 1411 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:30	SJC 20:40	33%	8%	0.8%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 10:10 → OGG 10:52AS 1066	1h 15m Kahului	OGG 12:07 → SJC 20:03AS 954	6h 53m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON