Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 534 Delta Flight history →	HNL 19:40	SLC 05:46	14%	5%	1.0%	83%
AS 1417 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:10	SLC 21:16	19%	5%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840	1h 23m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SLC 20:41AS 3291 · flown by SkyWest	8h 56m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	8h 58m	95%	77%
United Details →	HNL 11:16 → SFO 19:25UA 1572	1h 29m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	8h 43m	96%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:30 → SAN 16:01AS 892	2h 48m San Diego	SAN 18:49 → SLC 21:57AS 3017 · flown by SkyWest	10h 27m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	HNL 07:00 → SEA 15:52AS 762	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 19:07 → SLC 22:14AS 3298 · flown by SkyWest	11h 14m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	HNL 08:00 → LAS 16:50WN 1913	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 20:25 → SLC 22:55WN 4225	10h 55m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	HNL 11:55 → LAS 20:45WN 1914	2h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SLC 01:20 +1WN 1454	9h 25m	100%	63%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	56m San Francisco	SFO 16:11 → SLC 19:11UA 543	8h 01m	88%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON