tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1942 Southwest Flight history → HNL 11:00 SMF 19:10 13% 4% 0.5% 91%
AS 820 Alaska Flight history → HNL 14:00 SMF 22:09 31% 10% 0.7% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HNL 06:10 → KOA 07:05WN 655 2h 55m Kailua/Kona KOA 10:00 → SMF 18:05WN 2316 8h 55m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → HNL 08:05 → OGG 08:50WN 574 2h 00m Kahului OGG 10:50 → SMF 18:50WN 3105 7h 45m 100% 85%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 07:45 → PDX 16:17AS 840 1h 42m Portland PDX 17:59 → SMF 19:37AS 1622 8h 52m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 3h 08m Los Angeles LAX 18:41 → SMF 20:10DL 3759 · flown by SkyWest 10h 10m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 07:26 → OGG 08:06AS 1036 3h 21m Kahului OGG 11:27 → SMF 19:27AS 960 9h 01m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 07:10 → LIH 07:50AS 1013 2h 58m Lihue LIH 10:48 → SMF 19:01AS 966 8h 51m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 58m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 89% 76%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 07:30 → SAN 16:01AS 892 3h 55m San Diego SAN 19:56 → SMF 21:45AS 3006 · flown by SkyWest 11h 15m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HNL 12:23 → LAX 20:55AA 162 49m Los Angeles LAX 21:44 → SMF 23:20AA 4908 · flown by SkyWest 7h 57m 64% 53%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 09:15 → LIH 09:56AS 1183 52m Lihue LIH 10:48 → SMF 19:01AS 966 6h 46m 59% 45%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 07:30 → SAN 16:01AS 892 55m San Diego SAN 16:56 → SMF 18:38AS 2334 · flown by Horizon 8h 08m 68% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON