Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1943 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 1943 HOU 07:35 → ABQ 08:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4703 HOU 22:45 → ABQ 23:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1943 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:35	ABQ 08:40	6%	2%	2.2%	94%
WN 1944 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	ABQ 15:55	28%	8%	1.4%	62%
WN 4703 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:45	ABQ 23:55	31%	8%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON