Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2622 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2622 HOU 05:45 → ATL 08:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1948 HOU 17:50 → ATL 21:00 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2622 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:45	ATL 08:45	4%	1%	2.2%	94%
DL 2557 Delta Flight history →	HOU 06:00	ATL 09:05	5%	2%	1.6%	90%
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	HOU 10:40	ATL 13:46	9%	3%	1.2%	88%
WN 1947 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:25	ATL 12:25	10%	2%	1.6%	73%
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	HOU 12:55	ATL 15:59	15%	4%	1.4%	80%
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	HOU 17:17	ATL 20:32	18%	5%	1.7%	77%
WN 1949 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:05	ATL 01:10	28%	6%	0.8%	58%
WN 1948 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:50	ATL 21:00	29%	8%	1.3%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON