Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 437 at 14:45, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 437 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:45	BHM 16:30	26%	5%	1.3%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 10m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → BHM 11:40WN 434	4h 30m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	1h 40m Dallas	DAL 09:50 → BHM 11:30WN 1271	4h 30m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484	5h 42m	98%	81%
American Details →	HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29AA 5492 · flown by PSA	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → BHM 11:46AA 3469 · flown by Envoy	5h 43m	93%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:10 → MDW 10:40WN 1294	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 14:05 → BHM 15:45WN 496	7h 35m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	5h 45m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → BHM 18:55DL 2371	6h 00m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON