Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1954 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1954 HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1957 HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1954 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:10	BNA 09:10	5%	1%	1.8%	89%
WN 5068 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:05	BNA 11:00	9%	2%	2.2%	100%
WN 1955 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:00	BNA 12:55	13%	3%	2.3%	73%
WN 1958 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:05	BNA 23:05	24%	5%	0.8%	79%
WN 478 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:10	BNA 16:05	28%	6%	1.4%	36%
WN 1957 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:40	BNA 19:35	29%	7%	1.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON