Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → BUR 09:00WN 3327	5h 30m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243	5h 20m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → SMF 09:25WN 2082	1h 45m Sacramento	SMF 11:10 → BUR 12:30WN 3765	6h 55m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	2h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198	6h 20m	95%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741	8h 00m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:30 → SJC 09:20WN 2079	2h 50m San Jose	SJC 12:10 → BUR 13:20WN 3661	7h 50m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → OAK 09:30WN 2056	1h 35m Oakland	OAK 11:05 → BUR 12:15WN 1268	6h 40m	96%	78%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:15 → DEN 09:45WN 1971	2h 00m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579	7h 05m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:45 → DEN 16:30WN 5075	1h 40m Denver	DEN 18:10 → BUR 19:50WN 4174	7h 05m	70%	48%
Southwest Details →	HOU 18:25 → LAS 19:35WN 2003	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 20:45 → BUR 21:55WN 2163	5h 30m	73%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON