Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3797 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3797 HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 184 HOU 15:25 → BWI 19:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3797 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:25	BWI 09:30	5%	1%	1.6%	95%
WN 1960 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:50	BWI 15:55	18%	4%	1.7%	73%
WN 4669 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:15	BWI 22:25	25%	8%	0.8%	58%
WN 1961 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	BWI 00:40	27%	7%	0.7%	54%
WN 184 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:25	BWI 19:35	30%	8%	1.2%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON