Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4385 at 14:40, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4385 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	COS 16:00	35%	8%	1.3%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	1h 05m Denver	DEN 08:00 → COS 08:55WN 3419	4h 25m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 08:50 → COS 11:45WN 4326	7h 15m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → COS 12:32DL 2427	7h 32m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	3h 40m Chicago	MDW 12:30 → COS 14:00WN 1230	8h 35m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	50m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → COS 10:30WN 4142	5h 10m	93%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	2h 55m Dallas	DAL 11:05 → COS 12:00WN 3257	6h 00m	100%	77%
American Details →	HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29AA 5492 · flown by PSA	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → COS 09:52AA 1697	4h 49m	90%	72%
American Details →	HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:37 → COS 16:43AA 4956 · flown by SkyWest	7h 25m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:55 → DEN 19:40WN 1974	1h 15m Denver	DEN 20:55 → COS 21:50WN 3811	4h 55m	74%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON