Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4 HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 64 HOU 22:00 → DAL 23:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:00	DAL 08:10	5%	1%	3.6%	94%
WN 8 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:00	DAL 09:10	6%	1%	4.0%	88%
WN 14 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:30	DAL 10:35	9%	2%	2.8%	88%
WN 22 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:30	DAL 12:40	14%	3%	4.3%	86%
WN 30 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:30	DAL 14:40	17%	4%	2.5%	76%
WN 40 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:00	DAL 17:10	24%	5%	2.2%	75%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:00	DAL 16:10	24%	5%	2.2%	77%
WN 46 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:30	DAL 18:40	27%	6%	2.0%	73%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:30	DAL 21:40	27%	6%	1.2%	72%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:00	DAL 20:10	28%	6%	1.2%	75%
WN 64 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:00	DAL 23:10	28%	6%	1.1%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON