Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1701 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1701 HOU 08:15 → DCA 12:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 1968 HOU 14:00 → DCA 18:05 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1701 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:15	DCA 12:20	11%	3%	3.1%	82%
WN 4888 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:55	DCA 23:55	28%	9%	0.8%	48%
WN 1968 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:00	DCA 18:05	29%	8%	1.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON