Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1970 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1970 HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 5075 HOU 14:45 → DEN 16:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1970 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:30	DEN 06:55	4%	1%	3.1%	98%
WN 1971 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:15	DEN 09:45	7%	2%	3.1%	79%
WN 1972 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:20	DEN 11:50	11%	2%	3.1%	81%
WN 3069 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:55	DEN 14:25	20%	4%	2.3%	58%
WN 4639 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:25	DEN 21:10	24%	5%	0.8%	72%
WN 1974 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:55	DEN 19:40	28%	6%	1.5%	36%
WN 1975 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:45	DEN 00:20	28%	5%	0.8%	67%
WN 5075 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:45	DEN 16:30	30%	6%	1.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON