Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5492 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5492 HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 6385 HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5492 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HOU 06:03	DFW 07:29	10%	5%	3.0%	86%
AA 5071 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HOU 10:18	DFW 11:43	15%	7%	2.9%	64%
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 12:46	DFW 14:09	18%	11%	2.9%	74%
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 20:23	DFW 21:50	19%	5%	1.9%	73%
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 16:14	DFW 17:38	25%	11%	2.5%	60%
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 18:49	DFW 20:15	26%	11%	2.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON