Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1790 at 11:00, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1790 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:00	ECP 12:45	17%	3%	4.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	7h 15m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 20m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 12:55 → ECP 14:15WN 2176	7h 05m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 09:25 → ECP 11:20WN 3032	4h 20m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:30 → MCI 09:25WN 1037	1h 15m Kansas City	MCI 10:40 → ECP 12:45WN 2552	5h 15m	93%	78%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05WN 478	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 18:50 → ECP 20:15WN 513	6h 05m	100%	76%
American Details →	HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:16 → ECP 16:21AA 3502 · flown by Envoy	6h 03m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:45 → DEN 16:30WN 5075	1h 25m Denver	DEN 17:55 → ECP 22:05WN 4379	7h 20m	70%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON