Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	7h 01m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	6h 50m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	7h 08m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	6h 24m	95%	75%
American Details →	HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:36 → IAD 18:37AA 1904	7h 19m	96%	70%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:44 → IAD 22:52AA 1132	5h 38m	76%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON