Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1988 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1988 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:50	IND 13:05	13%	2%	2.2%	73%
WN 1989 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:55	IND 00:20	27%	6%	0.8%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30WN 3797	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → IND 12:30WN 960	6h 05m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → IND 12:05WN 3877	4h 40m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 36m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	1h 45m Denver	DEN 08:40 → IND 13:00WN 1552	6h 30m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	55m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → IND 12:20WN 537	4h 10m	94%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 09:00 → IND 15:25WN 3186	8h 05m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 08:50 → IND 15:30WN 3258	7h 55m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:35 → IND 19:10DL 2979	7h 30m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35WN 1957	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → IND 22:55WN 539	4h 15m	71%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON