Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4797 at 20:35, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4797 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	JAX 23:55	27%	7%	1.7%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	5h 00m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30WN 3797	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 11:35 → JAX 13:35WN 970	7h 10m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	55m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → JAX 12:35WN 541	4h 25m	94%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:05 → BNA 11:00WN 5068	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 13:40 → JAX 16:15WN 542	6h 10m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → JAX 17:57DL 2627	6h 17m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → JAX 21:11DL 2315	7h 16m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 52m	95%	72%
Southwest Details →	HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05WN 478	2h 55m Nashville	BNA 19:00 → JAX 21:40WN 4624	6h 30m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON