tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378 8h 08m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 7h 34m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29AA 5492 · flown by PSA 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:50 → JFK 14:34AA 1766 7h 31m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA 1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → JFK 17:56AA 1049 6h 38m 91% 68%
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:39 → JFK 22:30AA 1203 8h 44m 94% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON