Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1998 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1998 HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1058 HOU 22:50 → LAS 23:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1998 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:35	LAS 07:40	5%	1%	3.8%	98%
WN 3671 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:30	LAS 06:30	5%	1%	3.8%	100%
WN 652 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:45	LAS 11:55	14%	3%	3.8%	82%
WN 2002 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:10	LAS 15:20	33%	7%	1.6%	78%worse than usual
WN 2003 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:25	LAS 19:35	36%	11%	1.0%	58%
WN 1058 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:50	LAS 23:55	38%	8%	0.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON